The war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, why is China fighting a vague war? The battle between Russia and Ukraine was fierce. On February 26, the Ukrainian military and civilians began to fight fiercely with the Russian army besieging Kyiv. The United States, Britain, Europe, Canada and other countries issued a joint statement on the 26th, promising to expel several Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).
The war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, why is China fighting a vague war?
China has so far not taken a clear stand. Experts believe that China is in a dilemma between China-Uzbekistan economic interests and China-Russia cooperative relations, and China may play a mediating role and provide an alternative to Russia after it is sanctioned.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has intensified. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the two regions in eastern Ukraine on February 21 and ordered Russian troops to enter. On the 24th, Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine and began to enter the capital Kyiv on the 25th. Against the invasion of the Russian army, the Ukrainian military and civilians chose to confront the whole people. On the 26th, a fierce street battle broke out with the Russian army besieging the urban area of Kyiv.
The latest news from China’s “CCTV News” on February 25 revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had spoken to Putin and expressed his “support for Russia and Ukraine to solve the problem through negotiation”.
According to a report by China’s CCTV, Xi Jinping emphasized that “China decides China’s position based on the merits of the Ukraine issue, abandons the Cold War mentality, attaches importance to and respects the legitimate security concerns of all countries, and forms a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiations.”
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, China’s attitude has become blurred, causing concern and speculation from all walks of life.
Guo Chonglun, an adjunct professor at the Institute of Journalism at National Taiwan University, said China’s position is a dilemma.
He said: “First, China still adheres to the principle of ‘sovereign independence and territorial integrity’ derived from the five basic principles of peaceful coexistence in its previous diplomacy. In this regard, China favors Uzbekistan because of its interests, because Uzbekistan’s largest trade The partner is China, not the EU or Russia. Second, China also has a preference for the Russian side. For example, China opposes the eastward expansion of NATO, and opposes a certain group’s unlimited use of the security of other countries in order to increase its own security.”
Guo Chonglun said that China originally hoped to satisfy the first two with the “New Minsk Agreement” signed by Russia and Ukraine in 2015, but the content of the agreement included Russia’s recognition that the two regions in eastern Ukraine are still Ukrainian territory, and now Russia recognizes the two regions as Ukrainian territory. An independent republic puts China in an embarrassing situation.
Liao Hongxiang, a former McDonnell Douglas engineering manager and honorary professor at the Taiwan War College, said that China and Uzbekistan have substantial trade and technological cooperation, especially in military science and technology.
He said: “Ukraine is the most important to China is the D-30KP-2 aero-engine, not only for the PLA’s Y-20 transport aircraft, but also for the H-6 bomber. Ukraine is the largest aero-engine manufacturer in Ukraine and the most important aerospace manufacturer in the former Soviet Union. The engines of MiG, Sukai-27, helicopter, and transport aircraft produced by Motor Sich are all used in China.”
Liao Hongxiang pointed out that in terms of economic cooperation, the bilateral trade volume between China and Uzbekistan exceeds 15 billion US dollars per year, which is very important to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, China’s position on Ukraine will not be synchronized with Russia’s.
Professor Zhang Guocheng, deputy director of the General Education Center of Taipei Medical University, believes that both Ukraine and Russia have not given up the possibility of negotiation. Therefore, China is waiting for the war to end within a few days. After the end of the war, Ukraine and Russia will negotiate, and then the outcome of the negotiation will determine China’s position, even Likely to play a mediator role.
Zhang Guocheng said: “If China has the position and power to mediate the hotspots that are most concerned by the world at present, it will have a positive effect on China’s international perception, domestic morale, and recognition of Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping met with Xi Jinping on February 4. When Putin meets, if Russia wins in the end, China is betting on the opposite. So whether the war is just or not, the prestige and support for Xi Jinping must be a big plus.”
Zhang Guocheng pointed out that at present, the international community is most concerned about the outcome of the negotiations and the fate of Ukraine. China is happy to hold back its position for the time being, and will mediate depending on the situation, so as to enhance its own status.
Neither recognize nor deny the independence of Udong and East
Putin signed a decree on February 21 recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin repeatedly avoided 14 questions about the Ukraine issue raised by foreign media at a press conference on the 22nd and did not answer directly.
Liao Hongxiang, a former honorary lecturer at the Taiwan War College, said that Donetsk and Luhansk are not internationally recognized as states, but rebel regions backed by Russia. Putin’s goal is to bring Ukraine into his sphere of influence, even as a vassal state like Belarus, so Beijing doesn’t need to recognize its independence.
He said: “These two regions are just Putin’s tools, and they cannot become truly independent countries. In a real simulation, Russia would annex Ukraine, just like China would annex Taiwan. And Russia uses these two places to prove Ukraine. The reason why it can become part of Russia is that it has the same language and species in history. And China has not won Kinmen and Matsu until now, and it is also using these two small islands to tie Taiwan.”
Liao Hongxiang pointed out that China will not recognize these two regions as countries, but the close relationship between China and Russia in recent years has also put Beijing in a very embarrassing state.
Guo Chonglun, an adjunct professor at the Institute of Journalism at National Taiwan University, believes that China is fighting a confused battle on the issue of recognizing the independence of the Uruguay and eastern regions, and there are precedents to follow.
He said: “After the war between Russia and Georgia (Georgia) in 2008, two republics were established, but they were only recognized by Russia, not by China. In 2014, Russia occupied Crimea, and after Crimea, a referendum was held to unify it. Since entering Russia, China has never recognized the independence of Crimea or incorporated into Russia, and currently still believes that Crimea is part of Ukraine in name. Because China is also worried that if it recognizes the independence of Crimea or the two regions of Ukraine In the future, if the United States intervenes in cross-strait issues and recognizes Taiwan’s independence, it will be difficult for China to deny it.”
Guo Chonglun said that China would not condemn the two regions, nor would they recognize their independence.
Professor Zhang Guocheng, deputy director of the General Education Center of Taipei Medical University, believes that China is not embarrassed in the issue of the two regions.
He said: “China’s domestic and foreign policies have always been clearly divided. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many countries became independent from the Soviet Union. Although China is not happy to see the collapse of the Soviet Union, China is not worried that it may face the future. Regarding the issue of disintegration, they will not recognize those countries that were independent from the Soviet Union. Since Russia recognizes the independence of the Uruguay and Eastern Uruguay regions, China will not make a statement for the time being, and it is calculated that Russia will merge the Uruguay and Eastern Uruguay regions into Russia just like the Crimea. You can make a statement.”
Zhang Guocheng said that the issues between Uzbekistan and East China will not cause any impact or challenge to China’s internal affairs or China’s handling of cross-strait issues, and naturally there is no need to face it at this time.
China could offer a Russian alternative
After the influx of Russian troops into eastern Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and other Western allies have announced or pledged to impose sanctions on Russian banks, officials, business leaders and companies, and will also control the export of goods to Russia. Fang can’t get high-tech products. The European Union, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States issued a joint statement on the evening of February 26, committing to expel selected Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)
Beijing authorities have yet to comment on whether China will lend a helping hand to Russia to ease its sanctions.
Professor Zhang Guocheng, deputy director of the General Education Center of Taipei Medical University, believes that a growing China has obviously made it difficult for the United States and Western countries to maintain international order, and the effect of Western sanctions has been greatly weakened.
He said: “Many people criticize that the sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries against Russia are not strong enough. But now is an era when China’s economy and international power are becoming more and more powerful. If the sanctions are too strong, it is very likely that Russia will be pushed even more. Cooperating with China, the two deepen their alliance. In the face of sanctions against Russia, I am afraid that China can provide Russia with more and more options, so Western countries are also facing a difficult situation.”
Zhang Guocheng pointed out that China and Russia may develop deeper strategic cooperation because of this sanction. China has already provided a way out for the sanctioned countries, which is likely to become a potential changer of the international order and further encourage countries to abandon international treaties.
Guo Chonglun, an adjunct professor at the Institute of Journalism at National Taiwan University, said that expelling Russia from the SWIFT payment system would be the most severe economic punishment, but it would also be difficult for the sanctioned country to buy any raw materials such as natural gas from Russia, which would lead to rising prices. , Italy and other countries that are highly dependent on Russian natural gas are very disadvantageous. Moreover, in fact, Russia has been prepared for a long time. It also has a set of SPFS transaction clearing system. More importantly, China can provide other alternatives.
Guo Chonglun said: “The huge gas transaction signed between China and Russia recently also completely avoided the SWIFT payment system. At present, the transaction volume between SWIFT and China’s own payment system is about 10 to 1 in currency transactions. If Russia joins China’s system, it can be Offset the US sanctions against Russia. In fact, China is also planning, considering how China should respond if the US imposes economic sanctions on it when it invades Taiwan in the future, so the recent rapid development of digital currency as an alternative.”
Guo Chonglun pointed out that although Sino-Russian cooperation will inevitably strengthen in the future, China will also avoid the deterioration of its relationship with the United States, so that it can exert short-term benefits for Xi Jinping before the 20th National Congress of this year. Therefore, China will now strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Russia. go.
Liao Hongxiang, a former honorary lecturer at the Taiwan War College, said that the recent Sino-Russian joint military exercises may be a prelude to more specific military cooperation, but the space for deepening economic and trade cooperation is very limited.
He said: “The United States has already embargoed a lot of technology against China. Although Biden has come in, the embargo has been eased, but the embargo is still there. China’s most important priority now should be to persuade Washington to lift some of the embargoed technology, rather than deepening with Russia. Cooperation.
On the first day of Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, the stock market fell by 45%, and the ruble also fell by 14%, and this does not include the 15% decline in the past two weeks. And this is still before the effect of the US economic sanctions on Russia. The market expectation is due to the psychology before the emergence. Therefore, even if China wants to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Russia, the effect will be very limited.”