Russia Invasion of Ukraine: Who Exactly Used Putin and Xi Jinping? Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has entered its fifth day. 20 days before Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a “joint statement” on “unlimited cooperation” in Beijing on February 4.
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Russia Invasion of Ukraine: Who Exactly Used Putin and Xi Jinping?
Did Putin tell Xi in advance that Russia was about to invade Ukraine? Why is Beijing still reluctant to condemn the Russian aggression? What is Xi Jinping’s calculation on this incident? What impact will the Russian-Ukrainian war have on US-China relations and Xi Jinping’s personal political destiny?
Putin played with Xi Jinping?
Kong Jierong, an expert on China and a retired law professor, said Putin had played with Xi Jinping. “He put Xi Jinping in a very awkward position, and many in the Chinese leadership are clearly unhappy that Xi Jinping made it look like China was actually supporting the (Russian) invasion of Ukraine, which made China ugly.”
Kong Jierong believes that Putin must have warned Xi Jinping when he was in Beijing. “I think Putin must have given Xi Jinping the impression that this is his final choice, his highest priority. Xi Jinping was of course warned, and sources from other countries, including the United States, believe that (Russian invasion ) very likely, but he made a joint statement with Putin anyway. It makes it seem like China is offering silent support for sure, (at least) no objection… which is what Xi Jinping has done with Moscow.”
Xia Ming, a professor of political science at the City University of New York, agrees. “My guess is that Putin never said to Xi Jinping that we would launch a military attack on Ukraine, and we would encircle the whole country to achieve the purpose of demilitarization of Ukraine. He would not say that in the end, we will threaten with nuclear blackmail. But Putin will say that we are facing the siege of the West together, and we have to do something so that the West will not go too far, and will not let them use color revolution economic pressure to subvert us at every turn.”
Xia Ming believes that Putin is consciously alienating Xi Jinping’s relationship with the West. “Now the whole West is united. Look at the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry. When some reporters say that the whole world does not support you, you are very In isolation, she said, who said that? We have China, and China is a big country supporting us. So I think (Putin) sells China badly. So I think Putin is playing with China.”
Did Xi Jinping take advantage of Putin?
But Nina Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of former Soviet leader Khrushchev and a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York, believes that Xi Jinping took advantage of Putin.
On February 18, she wrote in the review magazine Project Syndicate, “In the growing hostility with the West, it is China that wants Russia to be on its side, not the other way around.” “Xi Jinping has done what was necessary to put Russia Locked in a vassal attachment to China. Putin has chosen to jump directly into his trap, believing that cooperation with Xi will help him confront the West.”
“What could be better for China than the complete isolation of the Russian economy from the West?” Khrushcheva asked in the article. “China will neither openly challenge the U.S. and defend Russia at the risk of its own prosperity, nor will it invest in the scale necessary to support Russia’s economy and offset the impact of the powerful sanctions imposed by the West after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, China will do everything in its power to support Russia’s economy. Do whatever it takes to keep Russia at odds with the West, thereby diverting the West’s attention from China’s own strategic challenges. China’s minimum aid may be enough to keep Putin in the Kremlin, and that’s what he cares about. But the Kremlin’s The master will rule a Russian economy that is slowly bleeding.”
Khrushcheva believes that Putin thought that on February 4 he signed the “Joint Statement” with Xi Jinping to achieve what Nixon did when he visited China in 1972, but the final result will be, “just as the Soviet Union was reconciled between the United States and China in 1972. Like the big loser, Russia could prove to be the big loser in the deal between Putin and Xi Jinping.”
Xi Jinping and Putin wreaking havoc on the world
Kong Jierong told VOA: “Xi Jinping looks very bad. How dangerous is it that a dictatorial leader doesn’t need to consult anyone, and doesn’t need to be bound by any other official institution. So, you have a Putin that Xi Jinping loves and admires. , and Xi Jinping himself is an unrestrained, undemocratic dictator who can wreak huge havoc on the world, which has done huge damage to both China and the U.S.-China relationship.”
Kong Jierong believes that the impact of the entire Russian invasion of Ukraine will be very strong, “It will increase the support of the United States for Taiwan, and now there will be a lot of pressure for the US military to return to Taiwan to ensure that if China uses violence against Taiwan, there is a trigger. factors that can ensure U.S. engagement.”
At the same time, Kong Jierong believes that “if the United States invests its national defense forces in Taiwan, or crosses the official military boundaries that are really delineated by the Shanghai Communiqué, this will increase the possibility of Beijing attacking Taiwan.”
Hu Ping, honorary editor-in-chief of Beijing Spring magazine, believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has increased Xi Jinping’s concerns about attacking Taiwan, making him even more difficult to do it. “Although Taiwan’s status as an independent country is not as good as that of Ukraine, Taiwan has a clear “Taiwan Relations Act” from the United States. If there is a fight, the possibility of the United States sending troops to help is quite high. From the beginning of Russia’s fight against Ukraine, everyone knew that the United States and NATO are not. possible military intervention.
Is the Putin crisis good or bad for Xi Jinping?
Hu Ping believes that the real impact of this incident and what everyone is concerned about is that the strategic plan of the United States to regard China as its main competitor will be greatly affected. “Because it takes a lot of energy to deal with Russia, and even in order to achieve the result of containing Russia, I hope China will help you. This is going back.”
“Russia is good for China, whether it succeeds or fails,” asserted Hu Ping. “Because the center of gravity of the United States has shifted, it is impossible to exert so much pressure on China, so why is Xi Jinping willing to support (Russia), because in this sense it will definitely benefit, it just needs to pay attention, not because of this Things are deadlocked and relations are messed up with the U.S. and the West.”
In this regard, Xia Ming, a professor of political science at the City University of New York, holds the opposite view. “I think the situation is sounding the death knell for China’s autocratic system, because this war is fought on Russia’s side, and it activates the entire EU and NATO.”
“If Putin really loses in the war, there will be a new regime reorganization within Russia, like the one seen in Ukraine, and it will immediately fall in the direction of a pluralistic democracy…it will become a Pro-Western countries. Who is the loneliest in this case? It leaves China as the only dictator in Eurasia.”
Xia Ming believes that both Xi Jinping and Putin have made a fatal mistake. “They sacrificed the national interests of their respective countries and pushed their respective countries and nations to the verge of extinction for the sake of their own autocratic lifelong power.”
But Xia Ming believes that the probability of Russia going to hell will be less than that of China, “because after all, after decades of democratization in Russia, it still has elections and opposition parties, and the acceptance of the Western constitution by the Russian nation is different from that of China.
Xia Ming said that Xi Jinping’s miscalculation will throw him into a more embarrassing situation than Mao Zedong. “Mao Zedong was not the source of instability in the world at that time, the world did not fear Mao Zedong, Western European countries did not think Mao Zedong would affect their Western European interests, but today is different. Today all Western countries recognize that China is their number one threat , Western countries have never lost their hands on Russia, so I think the last guillotine really falls on whose head. I don’t think it falls on Putin’s head, but more importantly, it falls on Xi Jinping’s head. “